Is the United States in for a Recession?

I don't have a crystal ball but so far it certainly looks like we are. One of my most profitable ways to trade the forex market is at news time and the following indicators have become much more in focus lately. This has a lot to do with the subprime mortgage mess, the housing market, high energy costs and less money for people like you and me to have for spending:\

Consumer Confidence – It is study of consumer attitudes concerning both the present position as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by The Conference Board. The level of consumer confidence is directly related to the intensity of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might act in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend more money on things other than gas for their cars. Keeping this in mind, it’s easy to see how this index gives insight to the way of the economy. Changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don’t move in tandem month by month.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – This is the measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the inflation rate. The CPI is the most followed indicator of inflation in the US, some forex training institutes also keeps record of it for training purpose. Inflation is a general increase in the cost of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data like the CPI influence the markets. By tracking the trends in inflation, whether low or high, descending or ascending, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform.